Control Systems and Computers, N3, 2017, Article 9
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/usim.2017.03.080
Upr. sist. maš., 2017, Issue 3 (269), pp. 80-85.
UDC 313.42
Voronin A.V., PhD in Techn. Sciences, Docent, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics, Kharkiv, Nauky avenue, 9-A, 61166 Ukraine, E-mail: ihor.voloshyn12@gmail.com
Voloshyn I.V., PhD in Techn. Sciences, Chief Specialist, The National bank of Ukraine, 9InstytutskaSt., Kyiv 01601Ukraine
Stochastic Discrete Dynamic Model of the Bank’s Liquidity
Introduction. For successful management of the banks’ deposit activity it is important to understand how to change the deposit attraction programme if the time structure of deposits has suddenly changed. The existing studies are mainly devoted to the analytical calculations of attracting programmes under conditions when the time structure of deposits is described by the continuous functions. There are scientific researches in which a methodology for calculating the deposit attraction programme are developed, provided that the time structure of deposits is discrete, which made it more similar to the problems that arise in each bank practice. However, in reality, the deposits attraction are outraged by random processes.
Purpose. Therefore, the bank faces the task of assessing or forecasting a programme for attracting deposits under conditions of incomplete information (stochasticity).
Methods. The task of evaluating the programme for attracting deposits under conditions of Gaussian noise is solved with the Kalman filtering procedure. Since the equation describing the discrete changes in the deposit attraction programme is a Voltaire difference equation of the convolution type, the Z-transformation is used to bring it to the standard representation in the state space. The scheme of the non-stationary Kalman filter is implemented in the form of a “predictor-corrector”.
Results. The algorithm for evaluating the programme for deposits attraction in the case of a random Gaussian process is developed. The equations for the non-steady-state Kalman filter are obtained. The numerical results clearly demonstrate the stable operation of the implemented filtering algorithm.
Conclusion. The developed algorithm for estimating a discrete programme for attracting deposits in the presence of a random Gaussian process is useful for software developers at the banking institutions. Its usage helps to improve the decision-making system for banks’ deposit management. For future research, it is necessary to consider the random distortions described by Gaussian color or shot noise, when there are the rare but significant outliers of the balances on the bank’s correspondent account.
Keywords: attraction program, deposit, term to maturity, Volterra integral equation, discrete dynamic model, randomness, Kalman filter
Download full text! (in Russian)
- Voloshyn, I.V., 2004. Assessment of banking risks: new approaches, Kiev: Elga, Nika-Center, 216 p.
- Voloshyn, I.V., 2007. “Dynamics of bank liquidity gaps under variableprograms of money placement and attraction”. Herald of the National Bank of Ukraine, 8, pp. 24–26.
- Voronin, A., Voloshyn, I., 2016. “The modes of attraction of bank term deposits”. Banking, 2(139), pp. 107–117.
- Voronin, A., Voloshyn, I., 2016. “A discrete dynamic model for calculating the program of deposits attraction”. Banking, 4(141), pp. 91–98.
- Ljung, L., 1991. System Identification. Theory for the User, Mosscow:Nauka, 402 p.
- Voloshyn, I. An unobvious dynamics of rolled over time banking deposits under a shift in depositors’ preferences: whether a decrease of weighted average maturity of deposits is indeed an early warning liquidity indicator? 26.12.2014, http://papers.ssrn.com/ sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2553732.
Received 07.03.2017
