Control Systems and Computers

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/usim.2016.04.086

Upr. sist. maš., 2016, Issue 4 (264), pp. 86-92.

UDC  364.2:331; 681.513 

Savchenko Ye.A., PhD (Eng.), savchenko_e@meta.ua, 
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4851-9664

Tutova Ye.V., PhD (Econ.), 

International Research and Training Center for Information Technologies and Systems NAS and MES of Ukraine, Glushkov ave., 40, Kyiv, 03187, Ukraine

A Procedure for the Human Potential Development Level Data Analysis, Modeling and Forecasting for Countries of the World and Ukrainian Regions

Introduction. In spite of existing techniques, a problem of data analysis, modeling, and forecasting of social and economic processes is of current importance since the macroeconomic data often contain uncertainty. They also can be fuzzy and noisy. Therefore, it is often difficult to find a solution for such problems with the acceptable accuracy.

Purpose. The purpose of this article is to develop a procedure to solve the problems of the human development level data analysis, modeling, and forecasting for the countries of the world and the regions of Ukraine based on the combinatorial GMDH algorithm and the correlationregression analysis. This procedure promotes improvement to the decision-making process in the field of the social and economic development policy in Ukraine both on the regional level and to compare the results achieved by our state on the way of progress in the field of the human potential development with other countries.

Methods. By the development of this procedure the combinatorial GMDH algorithm and regression analysis are used to build these models. Correlation analysis was applied to analyze the level of influence of indicators on the output quantity and to choose the most informative factors.

Results. A procedure for data analysis, modeling and forecasting to assess the human development level in the countries of the world and the Ukrainian regions was elaborated. This procedure can be used of recovering the data, selecting the informative arguments, building a model for the identification and forecasting, and extending the modeling space owing to the new arguments’ addition.

Conclusion. The application results of this procedure are recommendations for the possible correction of some aspects of the human development. It gives a possibility to improve the decision making process in the social and economic sphere. The worked out procedure can be used by the specialists in the field of the social and economical development, international relations to analyze and forecast the main trends in the regional development and international policy.

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Keywords: GMDH, Data Analysis, Modeling and Forecasting, human development level.

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