Control Systems and Computers

https://doi.org/10.15407/csc.2020.06.035

Control Systems and Computers, N 6 (290), 2020, pp. 35-45.

UDK 371:004.89

R.V. Voloshchuk, Junior Research Associate, International Research and Training Centre of Information Technologies and Systems of the NAS and MES of Ukraine, Glushkovave., 40, Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine, volrom@bigmir.net

Assessment and Forecasting of the Demographic Sphere
of Economic Security

Introduction. Ukraine has entered a stage of stable and long-term depopulation. In these circumstances, demographic changes and trends in the short and long term will significantly depend on the adopted national strategy of demographic security. With this in mind, the analysis, assessment and forecasting of security and the development of state mechanisms to neutralize demographic threats are extremely relevant and timely.

Purpose. The purpose of this article is to investigate the indicators of the demographic sphere and determine due to which of them the opportunity to improve the state of the integrated index of economic security of Ukraine. Perform forecasting of indicators of the state of the demographic sphere of Ukraine, to ensure effective management decisions.

Methods. By the development of this method of adaptive forecasting, ARIMA and exponential smoothing are used to build these models.

Results. The indicators of the demographic sphere due to which it is possible to improve the state of the integrated index are “Infant mortality rate” and “Natural rate”, “Total fertility rate”, “Total fertility rate,” Net reproduction rate.

Conclusion. The performed forecasting of indicators of the state of the demographic sphere of Ukraine using the methods of adaptive forecasting, ARIMA and exponential smoothing speaks of greater accuracy and efficiency of ARIMA and adaptive forecasting, using these methods ineffective management decisions in the demographic sphere of Ukraine, while adaptive forecasting was more accurate when forecasting certain indicators of the demographic security sphere.

Keywords: national security, demographic security indicators, level of economic security of Ukraine, additive integral index, nonlinear normalization of indicators, forecasting.

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Received 04.11.2020